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Off Market Reaction
By Alan Knuckman
November 11, 2010
I think the market always does a good job of forecasting expectations and unless a major surprise unfolds, which doesn’t seem to be the case now, things should continue on the present bullish trends. Clearly this would mean more down days for the U.S. Dollar.
Uncertainty is what adds additional fear and volatility components to the everyday trading concerns. The quantitative easing stimulus has been well-publicized and political changes foreseen so the results may be minimal.
A non-event often takes place as investors have positioned prior to the actual outcome. An efficient (in theory) auction style marketplace digests all of the information to determine an equilibrium price.
The fundamental drivers are reflected in the price action. The news or data event itself is not where money is made but rather the market reaction.
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Personal travels took me through western Illinois to Iowa City, Iowa (obviously) for a pigskin quest. As reported to my Resource Trader Alert readers, the grain harvest has been at a record pace while grain market prices remain at multi year highs.
The fall sunshine, warm temperatures and clear skies highlighted the oddness of the cleaner sweep of the plains. Something was amiss wearing short sleeves with not a standing crop to be found on the 200-mile trip.
An early cleanup and short work describes the football game action as well for the Hawkeye State. Cold beers were donated by polite strangers like freebees setting up the casino guests to fail. Food, fun and frolic was had by all after harvest work has been done. A beat down of epic proportions capped the farmer’s season but certainly not mine.
Apparently this quick and efficient harvest has been playing havoc in another sector, though. This according to the Des Moines Register:
“The harvest under way is taking its toll on Iowa’ rural roads and bridges. In recent weeks, Buchanan County has experienced piling failures at three bridges.
“The reality is, the bridges are getting older while the agricultural equipment and loads are getting heavier. One farmer acknowledged that he had his corn header on but there was supposedly very little corn in his hopper. His foreword momentum got him across, even though a portion of the deck broke away and fell into the creek. Had the combine gone down with it, he could have been injured or killed.
“One of our local farmers acknowledged that his two 750-bushel grain wagons weighed just less than 100,000 pounds without the weight of the tractor. Bridges are designed for 80,000 pound vehicles.
“When the grain gets finished we will begin with the liquid manure tanks. I am told the loaded tanks with the weight of the tractor are in the vicinity of 140,000 pounds. They shouldn’t be crossing the bridges.
“We are currently funded to replace about one bridge per year with federal funds. At that rate, we could get to all the bridges in Buchanan County in 257 years.”
On the subject of corn, the ethanol expansion has continued to the backyard or tailgate in this instance. The clean and convertible FlameDisk is the new way to barbecue.
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According to the Chicago Sun Times:
“Now comes Chad Sorenson to convert charcoal-using grillers among us. Sorenson is the Madison, Wis. Inventor whose ethanol powered FlameDisk was made for charcoal grills.
“Put the aluminum disk, which resembles a Frisbe-sized Jiffy Pop popcorn container, on the grate where you usually load your charcoal, peel back the top and light. A few minutes more, and you’re ready to grill.
“Its targeted at people who like the simplicity and upfront cost of the charcoal grill but don’t want the soot and ash. They’re getting gas like performance in their charcoal grill, says Sorenson, a mechanical engineer.
“Sorenson is big on talking about how his invention has been tested and is good for the environment, since solidified ethanol used in the disk is a renewable energy source and burns cleaner than charcoal and lighter fluid.”
Leader in This Race
Stocks, crude and the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index have moved in tandem both up and down as the price correlation has led to intelligent and insightful option plays. In truth it is only the result that matters and the price action in these indicators have made for a lot of winners.
While quiet last week to finish the month, stocks had the best September-October performance since 1998. The Dow was down 14 points, -0.13%, on the week ending October 29th. The S&P fared better to close unchanged, +0.02, and the NASDAQ was the upside leader positive 28 points, +1.13 on the week.
The bullish trends remain strong with the potential catalyst of crude oil pushing above $85 a barrel to set commodities markets aflame once again… I expect for this trend to continue to affect the commodity markets in a very positive way.
Sincerely,
Alan Knuckman
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How You Can Make Money Off Market Reaction is featured at Penny Sleuth.
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