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Saturday, March 19, 2011

Weekend Sleuth: Bring on the Volatility

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Weekend Sleuth: Bring on the Volatility
By Jonas Elmerraji
March 19, 2011


Dear Penny Sleuther,

Market volatility spiked last week — and not surprisingly, buy-and-hold investors are running for the hills. Of course, volatility doesn’t necessarily mean that stocks are headed lower. In fact, volatility can actually be a good thing…

We’ve looked in-depth at volatility in the past. Essentially, it’s a measure of the risk in stocks at any given time. While that normally has a negative connotation, experienced investors know that risk also goes hand in hand with reward. So, what kind of rewards are we talking about here?



The chart above shows the VIX index, an instrument that shows the implied volatility of the S&P 500. With the VIX sitting in the 24 range as of this writing, we can calculate that the market’s basically pricing in a 6.9% potential move in the S&P 500 in the next 30-days. So even though volatility rose nearly 63% in the last month, we’re still not talking about white-knuckle price movements in stocks.

That said, with the intermediate downtrend broken in volatility, the market looks clear for higher risk/reward numbers in the near future. It’s yet another thing to consider as you venture out into the market…


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Comment or question about an article? Just click on any article’s title above and join the conversation by leaving a comment...

We’ll be back next week with more thrilling insights on today’s market climate…

Until then, please send me any editorial comments or suggestions at editor@pennysleuth.com.

Have a good weekend,
Jonas Elmerraji
Managing Editor, Penny Sleuth


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