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Thursday, March 17, 2011

How the Wireless Crisis Could Bring Profits to Your Portfolio

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How the Wireless Crisis Could
Bring Profits to Your Portfolio
By Ray Blanco
March 17, 2011


Dear Penny Sleuther,

The recent FCC “net neutrality” ruling allows wireless carriers to manage their networks more actively. This is a big deal for companies in mobile technology. As the world’s largest wireless user, the U.S. represents a vast potential market for companies working with systems that can manage large networks…

I want to share some information posted earlier this month in a Cisco forecast, the Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, and how the expected fulfillment of the forecast impacts mobile technology. I’d like to highlight some of the projections made by Cisco’s analysts. They are, to say the least, astonishing.


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Consider that total global mobile data growth is expected to grow at a 92% compound annual growth rate over the next five years. All that traffic growth won’t be coming from existing devices, of course. It will be coming from brand-new ones:



Although the bulk of data traffic will still be on laptops and netbooks in 2015, as you can see, the mix of devices will look quite different. While per user growth for laptops and netbooks will grow at a very healthy 42% annual clip, smartphones will do well too, at 24%. Finally, tablets will be growing at a breakneck compound annual growth rate of 105%.

The phrase “the power of compounding interest” is a valid and often-repeated mantra for long-term investors. In this context, think about what the power of steep rates of compound growth in smartphones will do for the profitability of the world’s mobile market.

In addition, tablets are the fastest-growing mobile segment. 2011 has been called the “year of the tablet,” but we are just witnessing the tip of a future iceberg.

Another big change under way is in the operating system of choice for mobile platforms. The biggest gainer here is Google’s Android, which grew at a monthly average of 56.7% for the first nine months of 2010. The second strongest operating system, Nokia’s Symbian, managed only 37.9% by comparison. However, following Nokia’s recent announcement that it will switch to Microsoft’s mobile OS, Symbian will now be relegated to the dustbin.


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Patrick Cox, editor of Breakthrough Technology Alert, says:


“There is, in fact, going to be a rapid acceleration in the adoption of smartphones very soon. This is because the Android OS has basically won the technological battle of the bands. It will become the standard.”

Since Android is essentially free, we can’t invest in it directly as a pure play. However, there will be profitable opportunities to ride on its coattails. What this means, of course, is investing in mobile applications developers.

In a recent Forbes interview, George Gilder, senior fellow of the Discovery Institute, explained how crucial DPI technology will be to grow the wireless Internet. He said:


“Deep packet inspection is absolutely critical to our technology and the advance of digital technology, because you can’t really have cloud computing, you can’t really have video teleconferencing, you can’t do any of the new promise of broadband without having ways to differentiate among different packets.”

I do hope that the FCC will sanely manage the exploding wireless Internet. However, whether or not the U.S.’ mobile Internet gets swamped in a regulatory nightmare, the strongest growth will be in the rest of the world. This is a market I will be watching closely and recommend you do the same.

Ad lucrum per scientia (toward wealth through science),
Ray Blanco

P.S.: I am, by the way, carefully researching the industry and talking to prominent insiders for future mobile app recommendations for my Technology Profits Confidential subscribers.

In fact, we already have two breakthrough mobile tech companies in out portfolio.

For more information on these picks and other groundbreaking technologies, click here.


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How the Wireless Crisis Could Bring Profits to Your Portfolio is featured at the Penny Sleuth.



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