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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Don't Run from Tech's Second Coming

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Don’t Run from Tech’s Second Coming
By Greg Guenthner
February 23, 2011


Dear Penny Sleuther,

First there was the dot-com crash. Then, the housing market tanked. During the first decade of the 21st century, every “sure thing” eventually went bust, obliterating billions of investor’s hard-earned money. So it’s no surprise that after experiencing these back-to-back bubbles, investors have been reluctant to buy into a resurgence in tech stocks.

Some of the blame should be cast on the mainstream media’s assessment of tech’s recent success, which has been nothing short of breathless. These have been easy stories to write, considering household names such as Groupon, Twitter, and Zynga are all in the midst of their own respective stages of testing the IPO waters.


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But the main culprit that’s been causing all the buzz is Facebook, which has been pushed to the almost unimaginable valuation of $52 billion, thanks in part to yet another late stage investment, according to MarketWatch.

It’s easy to get caught up in these larger-than-life numbers. However, the same skepticism accompanied another famous IPO that soon became the emblem of success for the post-dot-com tech era: Google. In 2004, most investors were unable to see Google’s potential. This was due in part to the fact that many in the media could not fully comprehend the company’s powerful business model — but also because it was difficult to ignore Google’s gaudy valuation when it first emerged as a public company.

Public offerings aside, it’s important to note that technology’s recent run has been fueled by earnings. Here’s a breakdown courtesy of the Associated Press:


Judging by diluted earnings per share, a conservative method of valuing what a company’s stocks are worth, the companies in the Nasdaq index were collectively earning $39.28 per share in December 1999 and priced at 103.6 times their annual earnings. Now, the index has diluted earnings per share of $127.64 and a price-earnings ratio of 22.11.


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The justification of the dot-com boom of the 1990s at the time was paradigm shift. In early 2000, then-hedge fund manager Jim Cramer claimed that Internet related companies were the only stocks that warranted a second look. “You have to throw out all of the matrices and formulas and texts that existed before the Web...” Cramer stated.

Today, there’s little to link the tech bubble of the 90s with the current strong performance of the same sector. Tech companies today appear to be fairly judged based on rational earnings expectations, as opposed to the mania that gripped the sector more than a decade ago.

“Bubble” is the new buzzword for post-financial crisis America. In reality, the opposite holds true. The dot-com swindlers of the 90s have been replaced by cutting-edge performers: a solid group of companies that have successfully monetized what was once the Wild West of investing. Instead of tech being the new market recovery killer, you should view it as an excellent sector to search for your next small-cap investment.

Sincerely,
Greg Guenthner


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