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Tuesday, November 9, 2010

A New Way of Predicting Price Movements

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A New Way of Predicting Price Movements
By Abe Cofnas
November 9, 2010


Today I’d like to give you a peek into a new type of analysis I am pioneering.

As a trader, sometimes a string of success can lead to doubts… did we earn these gains, or were they just luck? It’s a fair question, so let’s take a look.

My theory of how to trade currency markets, and binaries in particular, is based on the fact that the markets are not random walks, and they do not move a linear fashion. They behave more like a chemical reaction-diffusion script, a system where the actions of one thing changes under the influence of several others.


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The biggest mover of the currency market, therefore, is the reaction to economic data releases. This is because the “big money” wants to avoid being on the wrong side of event releases. Instead of acting, they wait. So a lot built-up energy is released as soon as the data comes out.

Lately, the markets have followed this script perfectly. The U.S. elections and then the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) announcement of a new round of quantitative easing (QE2) combined to be a high-impact event releasing a sort of “sentiment tsunami.”

That’s what’s been spiking the volatility on a number of markets – from stocks to currencies to commodities – and providing ample opportunities for traders.

So how can you get an edge?

As promised, here’s a brief peek into a new type of analysis I’m exploring.

Just like a technical analyst closely examines price movement to detect patterns, I believe we can detect patterns by closely examining word choice.

Consider the FOMC statement that accompanied the QE2 $600 billion asset purchasing decision. I have called these statements, “Drops of Bernanke in a lake of hesitation.” The mental picture turns Ben Bernanke’s words into stones that cause ripples in the market. Since investors pay close attention to these statements, they are very carefully drafted. Every word counts — literally.

Breaking it down, we can see that inflation is used the most frequently (excluding the word “committee,” which is simply a reference to themselves, and articles like “the” and “a”). The words economic and pace are the next most frequent words. The words investment and rates receive only one mention each.


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See for yourself. Here is the FOMC word frequency count:



By analyzing the word content, we can detect sentiment in ways not obvious. The actions of the Federal Reserve have inflation as a major parameter that can trigger a change in their position. The economic pace of U.S. growth is a major concern.

The coming era will be a battle of expectations of whether the Federal Reserve can have its cake and eat it, too. Can they trigger just enough inflation (2% target) and stop there? Will QE2 simulate employment growth with an acceptable pace? Stay tuned!

Sincerely,
Abe Cofnas


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