Ireland: The next Greek?

Europe's financial performance has been quite sensitive to the debt crisis had just stepped into the end of Greece, Ireland, the debt problem once again sounding the "alarm." European debt crisis is not over, but hidden beneath the surface calm. Ireland would trigger a new round of turmoil, or the crisis will only lead to limited

Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF), president of Kahn and the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said, including those frequently, Ireland and Greece are facing different situation, but for the footsteps of Ireland or Greece, the concerns are further spread . Ireland is likely to be "European pig Five" in the second fall of the country.

Sovereign ratings have been threatened

November 15, the euro against the dollar in Asian currency markets or the performance of the stock market first and then failed to extend last Friday's rally in New York trading situation, and after entry into the European currency, the euro continued to slide against the dollar, and low below 1.3660 . "Clearly, the debt problems of the current market concerns for the Irish sentiment is spreading to combat the risk appetite of investors." In an interview with one of the banking industry, "International Finance News" interview, said, "especially if the market for the euro area Ireland will support the speculation, but also weighed on the euro. "

It is reported that Germany urged the Irish to receive emergency assistance to help reverse the growing euro-zone bond yields lower peripheral countries the situation, the Irish and European officials are to discuss current market conditions.

Shanghai Normal University Financial Engineering Research Center, Sun Maohui In an interview, "International Finance News" interview, said: "In fact, the debt crisis broke out in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and other countries have noted that the risks to its own debt. Although reduce expenditure in these countries, fiscal policy was adjusted accordingly, but the European economic slowdown, high taxes, high welfare, and no fundamental changes in social structure, so they set off the national debt crisis is only a matter of time. "

Irish government expects the country's budget deficit will reach the 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) of 32%, the highest in the EU list. The country plans to cut the budget for fiscal year 2011, six billion euros, 4 years, spending a total savings of 15 billion euros. Ireland Bond Authority data show that the total funds required in 2011 was 235 million euros, respectively, 2012 and 2013 to be 20.7 billion euros and 189 billion euros. In addition, Ireland also face tremendous pressure to salvage the banking sector. Ireland Bureau of Statistics said the country's banking sector to save the cost of at least 50 billion euros.

International rating agency Moody's said it would release four years of financial planning in Ireland decide whether the country's sovereign rating lowered. "Ireland is currently facing difficulties from the point of view, even if their published financial plan the next four years, but also more difficult to keep the sovereign rating. If the implementation of EU assistance in the final right of Ireland, Ireland is likely to further worsen the debt crisis." The analyst said.

Better than the teeth for help

November 16 evening, the euro zone finance ministers will hold talks in Brussels, whether the aid will be released in Ireland Euro final answer.

From the current situation in perspective, the Irish EU itself is not willing to help, assisting his side would be more active. IMF's Strauss-Kahn has publicly said that if Ireland to seek assistance, IMF ready to provide support. As a euro-zone countries, Germany, the main Irish hope to receive assistance.

"Euro area including Ireland within a short time the debt problem is not easily solved, once the continuing deterioration caused by a series of unforeseen consequences." Sunmao Hui said, "with the euro area as soon as possible, the European Commission and the IMF to communicate and receive assistance, more sensible than their own teeth. "

The analyst pointed out: "Prior to the debt crisis, the EU and the IMF have reached a total of 7,500 million euros in aid funds. Therefore, as long as Ireland formally seek help, their assistance in the process is much faster than the Greek."

However, Ireland and do not easily put aside his own "posture." Irish Ministry of Finance said earlier that the Irish did not agree to accept any outside assistance, and financial resources enough to support the Government in 2011. Yesterday, the French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, announced that the Irish did not seek funding partners to the EU.

"The Government of Ireland, once for help means that the negation of its ability to govern. And receive assistance, which means the severity of their debt problems, will likely further increase in the cost of capital markets." Sunmao Hui pointed out that "In addition, once the recipient is bound to the Irish to accept some additional conditions, as the Greek Government to implement these conditions considerable resistance."

FrenchSociete Generale Bank(24.42, -1.58, -6.08%)yesterday released a report that a new round of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, the trend out of control, sooner or later be forced to hand over Ireland to accept the fiscal sovereignty of the EU financial stability mechanism (EFSF) of the aid. French bank that a possible solution is to accept the EFSF Portugal and Ireland with the assistance of funding. Portugal in the bond market, prices hit by a smaller, but the country's financing needs are also serious problems.