the dollar index tends to shock the market forces

QE2's final size of the lower expected value in the market boundary, and the market expectations of QE2 has digested most of the early, short-term future of the dollar index tends to shock the market forces were not yet clear when the long and short the market or to test the direction of the next phase of U.S. dollars. From a technical perspective, if the dollar continued to test a low index, the effective breakdown lows 76.16, may be tempted to about 74, but the possibility of significantly dropping as basically not. Over time, U.S. economic data continued to turn for the better, while Europe have a negative impact because of financial constraints, the Japanese economy continued to fall, or will stage a stronger U.S. dollar.

However, Royal Bank of Scotland and the global financial markets managing director Xie Wen-Jun in the "Daily Economic News" interview, said that in the not fully recover until the U.S. economy, the dollar will continue weakening. And she expects this process may continue for 1 year.

　　Puzzle of QE2

Currently, outside of the QE2's challenge, mainly from two aspects, one cause of inflation and asset price bubbles, and second, the policy can play a role in stimulating the economy, the U.S. third-quarter economic growth of the chain is only 2.0% annual pace.

2008 financial crisis, in order to stimulate domestic economic growth and employment, the Fed introduced the quantitative easing (QE1) of monetary policy. Logically, the Federal Reserve through "quantitative easing" can be long-term rates down, and then weighed on the dollar, reducing the current account deficit drag on the economy; In addition, the "quantitative easing" also means that borrowing costs will be reduced to stimulate private sector investment and increase in consumer spending will both be available for the U.S. economic recovery momentum.

Du Zheng Cheng, from the current situation, QE1 stimulate the economy rebound from the bottom part of the purpose has been achieved; but to increase employment and stimulate consumption, the quantitative easing did not play the role of prior expectations, the U.S. unemployment rate has been hovering at a high level a long time, nearly 3 months has been about 9.6%; moderate growth in consumer spending, and after growth in U.S. consumer spending for some time more stimulus from the consumer benefits, not QE itself.

One analyst told the "Daily Economic News" interview, also pointed out that the unemployment rate reflects the economic recovery of the United States, loose monetary policy in the United States failed to play the desired effect, because of its macro-monetary control too much, while the micro-economic structural adjustment did not attach importance to, such as banks still reluctance to lend, inability to stimulate investment and consumption. Between macro and micro Government conduction mechanism is not well, so easy monetary conditions improved on the economy is not obvious.

However, in response to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the U.S. on the purchase of assets can have a positive effect of economic activity concerns that, by boosting the prices of stocks and corporate bonds, the Fed's asset purchase program can and has been promoting to some extent down unemployment rate of investment.

But the just-concluded mid-term election results, and perhaps also that the QE2 is not optimistic about the future unpredictable. Some analysts said the new round of quantitative easing, the Fed if there is no other with the stimulus plan will be difficult to achieve the desired effect. As the White House after the midterm elections the Republican advocates withdrawal from the government stimulus plan, the government can hardly expect the adoption of new stimulus program