China next year, inflation of 3% -3.5% control - CITIC

China's major brokerages - CITIC Securities (600030.SS: Quote) latest report, the policy control of inflation in China in 2011 under the control of 3% -3.5%; the second Five-Year Plan large, the economy is not stagflation, stock and long-term bullish trend.

Report, policy tightening is expected to increase, at this stage to reassess the CPI is in the trend of government policy and the corresponding adjustment of the vacuum period, the market has not formed a clear and consistent expectations, and this confusion is running the policy will be expected to produce a certain stock pressure.

"As investors are more sensitive attitude, coupled with profit taking at any time may be poured out, the more likely range-bound stock." The report said.

Stamp duty will be raised by the recent interest rate speculation and other bad factors, Shanghai Composite Index on Friday, 14 months to create the largest single-day drop. In this regard, the Ministry of Finance 12 stakeholders will increase the stamp duty has been denied the rumors. However, analysts said may still raise interest rates during the year.

CITIC, said the current round of adjustment with systematic risk characteristics, performance of macro-tightening on inflation caused by economic growth momentum and the corresponding steady concern whether the short term, inflation concerns are still the main factor restricting the index, the government will be short-term focus pressure inflation growth to ensure livelihood security, the market will need about one month observation period to determine whether the control of inflation.

CITIC's investment advice is given: the industry to find a structural configuration on the one hand, systematic risk sensitivity of small industries, on the other hand focus on those growth areas identified fell out of the relative configuration of the opportunity, short-term price sensitivity of the industry to avoid .

At the same time, continue to favor the second Five-Year Plan and the emerging industrial policy to promote the growth stocks; the currency appreciation, the context of economic recovery and reasonable valuation, an increase of certain coal, finance, machinery, automobile and other industries; consumption of some of next year rapid growth, the current valuation is reasonable, against inflation of the industry. (End)

- Issued by Zhao Hongmei; revision into Peter Tsang


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