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By Alan Knuckman
January 31, 2011
Dear Penny Sleuther,
Key levels, support, resistance, retracements, targets and exits are all numbers on the price chart for stocks and commodities.
As you know this is a way of evaluating the strength and direction of assets for future movements. The numbers never leave my mind, instead they’re just pushed to the back to reemerge at the time of need for analysis.
Price and time are the two most important factors in trading. The strategies you use should depend on the market moving to higher or lower prices.
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The oft-mentioned trading discipline of Identify, Execute, Manage and Maximize really focuses on the first two steps for determining success. Truly, a bad play with an improper entry cannot be managed into profit. Management and maximization can enhance returns (significantly), but not change the overall outcome very often.
The “plan your trade, trade your plan” axiom has to be hard at work. With proper money management and profit maximization you can look to exceed those numbers.
The days of watching tick-by-tick price moves are behind me — and should be behind you. The emotional energy spent is costly and does little to influence market direction. Prices will do what they are going to do and a weekly snapshot shows either new relative highs/ lows to continue or reverse trends. An extended evaluation period of time smoothes out day-to-day volatility that is best to the young with healthy hearts.
Money is made on both the downside and upside by traders, another accepted term for investors or speculators. In fact some of the best performing markets in coal, iron ore and copper have little if any speculation.
An enormous amount of money has been invested in the natural gas exchange traded fund UNG since its creation a few years ago. Nat Gas has been the ONE commodity that has gone down over the past two years.
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Bullish speculators have been wrong — and haven’t altered that market in any way.
Unprecedented buying has not paid off or supported an unnatural market rally.
Another example of speculation is the purchase of shares of stock in any corporation. Unless you’re attempting to buy enough for majority rights to manage the operation you’re a speculator. Investment accounts are filled to the brim with speculative plays that would make a California gold rush prospector shy away from the outright risk that some people employ.
Risk control, probability, and hedging separate the trader from an outright gambler.
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Nearly 100% of the trading volume is speculative in nature. Money is used to make more money… sometimes right, sometimes wrong. Indeed, it is a right to be wrong.
Making and or protecting money is the core motive for investors in the financial markets. The objective of trading in stocks, or futures and options in the vast ocean of finance is a positive return on investment. Many different strategies over varying time frames are employed to squeeze profit from exchange traded products that can be described as capitalism at its finest.
Without risk it is very hard to receive reward in this market.
Sincerely,
Alan Knuckman
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